
Photo courtesy Columbia Pictures.
Watching the box office closely, I’ve developed a pet theory that a major studio is going to go under in the next few years. Ticket sales have been declining steadily since 2002, with 2014 actually being the worst year in terms of total tickets sold since 1995. Since ticket prices have also been steadily rising, the bottom line has kept going up, but it isn’t going up quickly, and it’s been hovering around $10.5 billion since 2009. This is what a market bubble looks like — raw purchases are going down and profits are stagnating, but the problem is budgets keep going up. Studios are scheduling movies several years in advance now to try and keep up with Marvel, and when the bubble crashes and dwindling audiences overtake rising ticket prices, they’re not going to be able to pull the brakes. A lot of the money they’ve promised to big-budget tentpole films will have already been spent.
Everyone in the industry will say the depression is the problem, pat themselves on the back and no one will be fired, but the problem isn’t that people are going to the movies less and less — the problem is that people are going to movies less and less, and at the same time studios continue to put colossally stupid amounts of money into the budgets anyway.
Now you probably think this is just a kooky, far-fetched conspiracy that couldn’t possibly happen, and that’s the logical reaction, but here’s the thing — it’s already happening!
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